Essentially, Obama is taking his time to consider his options.
Counterinsurgency (COIN) will cost the US military, the US government, and other entities responsible for conducting operations, whether non-military or military in terms of political will, manpower, lives, and expenses. The average counterinsurgency lasts 14 years, and the US military has really only begun. McChrystal believes that COIN is the best way to win Afghanistan, however the cost may be too great to pay.
Counter-terrorism (CT) operations may be the more pragmatic approach. Rather than devoting resources to building the capacity of the government and using civilian elements for non-military operations, Special Forces and other elements of the military will use actionable intelligence to continuously fight al-Qai'da and other terrorist organizations operating in Afghanistan and possible Pakistan.
COIN is much more expensive, while CT is cheaper and more pragmatic. COIN is the sustainable approach, but may be impossible because the country is just so fragmented and would take probably decades. But after operations have ceased, the government would be able to properly govern and enforce the law, there would be some semblance of a formal economy, and the social structures of Afghanistan would be less fragmented and disparate.
CT operations would be based upon actionable intelligence and the continuous direct action of Special Forces to eliminate threats as they emerge.
Although I agree that COIN would certainly be a much more expensive route, I believe it would, overall, be a more effective one. COIN operations would allow us to build both better relations with the new Afghan presidential administration and help prevent further attacks against the new government. Although the country is fragmented now, effective COIN ops in AFghanistan would be possible and strengthen our relationship with the country and its new president/ administration, as long as President Karzai is willing to assist us in such operations. I believe CT ops would work and be effective in a more immediate sense, I believe they would not nearly be as effective in the long run. It is important that we strengthen our relationship with this new administration, which I believe would be done more properly throigh COIN operations.
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